Fear = $

I saw a great video yesterday that supports Warren Buffet's mantra: "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful."

This video clip is an interview with S&P's Sam Stovall. He cites historical evidence that Consumer Confidence is a bellwether for the stock market. Basically, when Consumer Confidence is low as measured by the Confidence Board, it signals we've reached the bottom or close to the bottom of the market. Recently, the Consumer Confidence Index hit a historical low of 50.1, which is the 5th lowest in history. The lowest was December 1974 which bottomed out at 43.2 However, the S&P 500 returned 37.2% in 1975. Bush's lowest level was March 2003 61.4 By the end of 2003, the S&P 500 had a 28.7% return.

I'm going to start keeping an eye on this index. It's published once a month.

Maybe George Costanza was right. If we just do the opposite, it must be right.